Comparison of Hand Eczema Search Terms in Iraq Before and During SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Using Frequentist Statistics and Polynomial Models

Ahmed Al-Imam; Nada Al-Ward; Manal M. Younus; Omar Aimer; Ali K. Al-Shalchy

doi:10.20883/medical.e615

Authors

Ahmed Al-Imam Department of Computer Science and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, PUMS Doctoral School, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poland; Department of Anatomy and Cellular Biology, College of Medicine, University of Baghdad, Iraq; Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, the United Kingdom https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1846-9424
Nada Al-Ward Department of Community Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Baghdad, Iraq; Middle East Regional Office, World Health Organization
Manal M. Younus Iraqi Pharmacovigilance Center, Ministry of Health, Iraq; Middle East Chapter, International Society of Pharmacovigilance https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9475-5700
Omar Aimer International Society of Pharmacovigilance, Canada https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0874-486X
Ali K. Al-Shalchy Neurosurgical Unit, Department of Surgery, College of Medicine, University of Baghdad, Iraq; The Royal College of Surgeons, United Kingdom

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20883/medical.e615

Keywords:

Digital epidemiology, online systems, pharmacovigilance, spatio-temporal analysis, web search

Abstract

Introduction.SARS-CoV-2 pandemic spread around the world exponentially. People use disinfectants excessively as a form of protection from the novel coronavirus, which may result in contact eczema. This, in turn, may be monitored by the local health authorities. Our study explores the internet in order to detect significant changes in online information search behaviors associated with eczema in Iraq during the pandemic.

Material and Methods. We searched the internet, via Google Trends, using five search terms; "اكزيما", "الاكزيما", "اكزيما اليد", "كحول", and "مطهر"; these are the Arabic translation for "eczema", "the eczema", "hand eczema", "alcohol", and "disinfectant". We explored the temporal mapping covering two years, before and during the pandemic, using frequentist statistics, polynomial models, and neural networks to evaluate the time series which reflects web users' information-seeking behavior with regard to these terms.

Results. Spatial mapping conveyed data from six Iraq governorates, including Ninawa, Babil, Al-Najaf, Baghdad, Basrah, and Erbil. Basrah governorate had the highest score (interest) for the search term "the eczema" (الاكزيما), while Al-Najaf had the highest score regarding the search term "disinfectant" (مطهر). Temporal mapping exhibited high variability, the highest of which was for the "the eczema" (الاكزيما) and "alcohol" (كحول). Exploring the time series using polynomial models demonstrated a weak power over the two years. However, in the course of the pandemic year, all models possessed moderate power.

Conclusions. Changes in the human behavior during pandemic events are of prime importance for the pharmacovigilance experts. Pandemics may affect medical conditions, including hand eczema, as a manifestation of disinfectants overuse. Combining statistics and artificial intelligence facilitates screening, detecting, and collecting pharmacovigilance safety data.

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